Kelly, Senators handle Oilers

Hockey Betting Lines

03/10/2010 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Kelly registered a goal and an assist to lead the Ottawa Senators to a 4-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers at Rexall Place.

Mike Fisher, Matt Cullen and Milan Michalek also scored for the Senators, who opened their three-game Western Canada road trip by putting the brakes on a three-game winless skid. Brian Elliott made 18 saves in the victory.

Fernando Pisani scored the only goal for the Oilers, who saw their brief two- game win streak halted and lost for the eighth time in their last 11 games overall.

Jeff Deslauriers allowed four goals on 39 shots in the loss.

The Oilers opened the scoring at the 4:27 mark of the second period. Aaron Johnson's shot from above the left circle was saved by Elliott, but the rebound sat loose in front before Pisani cut across the top of the crease and punched home the rebound from near the left post.

With 3:42 to play in the middle stanza, the visitors knotted the contest on Kelly's 12th goal of the season. He held control of the puck behind the goal line to the right of the net and he banked the puck off the back of the pad of Deslauriers and into the back of the cage.

Cullen's power-play goal at the 8:24 mark of the third proved to be the eventual game-winner. Erik Karlsson passed from the left point across the slot for Cullen, whose blazing one-timer from the right circle lit the lamp with the help of a screen in front by Jason Spezza.

Less than two minutes later, Fisher's 21st tally of the season gave the visitors a 3-1 edge. Strong forechecking deep in the Ottawa offensive zone kept the pressure on the Oilers, who eventually committed a turnover and the puck landed on the stick of Fisher. From the inner rim of the right circle, Fisher's wrist shot beat Deslauriers near the midpoint of the stanza.

Only eight seconds after Ryan Whitney went to the penalty box for a cross- checking minor, the Sens cashed in and Michalek's 22nd tally of 2009-10 capped the scoring.

Game Notes

Ottawa defenseman Filip Kuba missed his third consecutive game with a lower- body injury...The Sens have now defeated the Oilers six straight times...Mike Comrie of Edmonton failed to score on a penalty shot in the first period...The Senators were 2-for-9 on the power play, while the hosts were scoreless on their four chances with the extra skater...Daniel Alfredsson had three assists for Ottawa.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.