Schwartzel finds himself alone in front at Doral

Golf Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - South Africa's Charl Schwartzel posted a brilliant, bogey-free, five-under 67 on Thursday to take the first-round lead of the WGC-CA Championship.

Schwartzel braved tough, windy conditions at the TPC Blue Monster at Doral for the first-round advantage, when every other leader got tripped up by the famed Blue Monster 18th hole.

First up was Robert Allenby, who reached eight-under, but bogeyed three in a row from the 15th. At the last, Allenby found a greenside bunker and nearly blasted his ball into the water. He couldn't get up and down for par and walked off with a 68.

"When you come from eight-under and you finish up at four (under par), you look at it and go, wow, you really messed that up," Allenby said. "They are not easy holes."

Next was Vijay Singh.

The Fijian was alone in the lead at six-under par after a great approach at 17 left him a tap-in birdie. Singh drove into the water at 18, took a drop, missed the green with his third, chipped to 16 feet, missed the bogey putt and settled for a double-bogey and a round of 68.

Francesco Molinari was tied for first at five-under, but, like Singh, drove into the drink on the left. He missed the green with his third and landed his fourth 16 feet from the hole. Molinari's putt stayed above ground and he made double for a round of 69.

The final leader who fell victim to the Blue Monster was Ernie Els.

The three-time major winner was five-under, but avoided the water off the tee, only to land in the right rough by the trees. Els' second trickled into the water and after a drop, he pitched to five feet and made the putt for bogey.

"You can't afford to get it anywhere near the water," acknowledged Els. "It's a very, very difficult hole."

To tally it up, Allenby, Els and Singh are tied for second at four-under 68. Molinari heads a group of John Senden, Soren Hansen, J.B. Holmes, Paul Casey and FedEx Cup leader Dustin Johnson in a share of fifth at three-under 69.

That left Schwartzel the sole survivor.

Perhaps he was aided by the fact that he started on the 10th tee Thursday and finished his round at the par-three ninth.

"There's so much trouble out there, especially with this type of wind." said Schwartzel. "The big achievement for me today was not making any bogeys. That kept the scorecard very clean."

Schwartzel parred the 10th on Thursday, then rattled off back-to-back birdies at 11 and 12. He parred his last six on his first nine, including the Blue Monster, then caught fire after he made the turn.

The South African birdied the par-five first, then holed a long birdie putt from off the green at No. 2. Schwartzel parred three, then returned with a birdie at No. 4.

He missed the green at his last, the par-three ninth, but hit a great chip to three feet. Schwartzel made the putt to save par and stay atop the leaderboard, a familiar place for the 25-year-old.

Schwartzel earned back-to-back victories earlier this year at the Africa Open and Joburg Open on the European Tour. He tied for ninth at the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and is third on that tour's Race to Dubai.

"I've started off the year so good and I couldn't have asked for any better," said Schwartzel. "I've got a lot of confidence with the way I'm playing right now, I'm striking the ball well, and you know, I'm also making a few putts, which is all adds up to good golf.

"I played a lot of good rounds in my career, and yeah, this one rates right up there."

Defending champion Phil Mickelson carded a one-under 71 and is part of a group tied for 17th place.

"I'm happy with 71," said Mickelson. "I know it's not in contention yet, but my goal was to shoot something as solid as I did today, and improve on it each day."

NOTES: Due to Friday afternoon rain on the horizon, officials moved up second- round tee times. The first group off on Friday will now be at 8:00 a.m. (ET) with times running through 9:55 a.m. The groups will remain the same with threesomes going off the first and 10th tees...The only two players qualified for this week that aren't in the field are Tiger Woods, who is still on an indefinite leave, and Ryo Ishikawa, who is graduating from high school in Japan...This is the second WGC event of the year. Ian Poulter won the WGC- Accenture Match Play Championship and had an even-par 72 on Thursday.

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FOOTBALL BETTING

Sportsbook Betting

After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

NFL Betting Lines

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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