This Week in Auto Racing March 19 - 21

Autoracing Betting Lines

03/16/2010 - Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While "March Madness" begins in college basketball this week, NASCAR's two weeks of short-track "madness" starts with the Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series running on the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

Food City 500 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

After taking the first off-weekend of the season, the Sprint Cup Series will return to Bristol, and all eyes will be focused on Carl Edwards and Brad Keselowski.

Edwards begins his three-race probation period at Bristol. The Roush Fenway Racing driver avoided suspension after he deliberately hit Keselowski from behind and sent him flying upside down into the frontstretch wall last week at Atlanta.

Both drivers had an earlier encounter in the Atlanta race when Keselowski clipped Edwards and shot him up the track before he hit the wall. Edwards spent most of the event behind the wall, but retaliated against Keselowski shortly after he returned to the track. NASCAR immediately parked him for the altercation.

Atlanta was the latest in an on-going feud between Edwards and Keselowski. The issues between the two began last April when Keselowski hit Edwards from behind and sent him airborne into the wall during the final lap at Talladega. NASCAR plans to meet with both drivers and their team owners on Friday before Bristol track activities begin.

Will the Edwards-Keselowski rivalry continue at Bristol? It will make for an interesting weekend, as the two also compete in Saturday's Nationwide Series race.

Bristol recently underwent a track modification, with the addition of more than 160 feet of Steel and Foam Energy Reduction (SAFER) barriers. Track personnel extended the "soft wall" by three feet at the exits of turns two and four. The modification at the high-banked, half-mile track comes nearly three years after a fresh layer of concrete and four feet of additional width led to multiple racing grooves there.

With less room to move, drivers will have to adjust to the traditional style of racing at Bristol -- a lot of beating and banging.

"I like all the room that you can get at some of these race tracks, so that's going to make it tough," said Kyle Busch, who won both Cup races at Bristol last year. "They did it for the excitement of the racetrack and try to put some bumping and grinding back into that place. The exits were already tight with these cars. It's going to slow down the pace probably a little bit, because we don't have as much room on the exits to use. Maybe it will make for better racing. I'm hoping so."

Jeff Gordon, a five-time race winner at Bristol, thinks the barriers will make a considerable difference in racing at Bristol, but drivers should adjust to it quickly.

"We use every inch of that race track," Gordon said. "It is definitely going to be unique. I am anxious to get there and see how many right sides we take off the first hour of practice. It is like anything else, eventually you get used to it."

Heading into Bristol, Kevin Harvick holds a 26-point lead over Matt Kenseth and a 59-point advantage over Greg Biffle. All three drivers have recorded top-10 finishes in the first four races this season.

Four-time defending series champion Jimmie Johnson, who won at California and Las Vegas last month, has moved up to fourth in points (-74) following his 12th-place run at Atlanta.

Bristol is one of six tracks where Johnson has yet to win.

"We're getting close," Johnson said. "It's taken a lot from me as a driver to change my habits in the way I drive that race track and really drive any race track. I've had to completely switch over to a different driving style. It was easy for us to look at what had worked for [Gordon's team] for so many years, but I just couldn't make that work. Our styles are so different that I couldn't make it work."

The spring race at Bristol is the first of six short-track events on the season schedule. Next week, the series will run at Martinsville.

Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Food City 500.

Nationwide Series

Scotts Turf Builder 300 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

Following a two-week break, the Nationwide Series returns to action with their first short-track race of the season at Bristol.

Carl Edwards heads to Bristol with a 41-point lead over Brad Keselowski. Saturday's Nationwide race will be the first time Edwards and Keselowski compete against each other since their confrontation in last week's Sprint Cup race at Atlanta.

Last month at Las Vegas, Kevin Harvick collected his 35th career Nationwide victory. Harvick currently is second to Mark Martin on the series' all-time race winners list. Martin has 48 wins so far.

Harvick has won at Bristol five times, including a victory there one year ago.

"I grew up on a high-banked, half-mile race track, and it's the same style of racing that I'm used to, although Bristol is much faster," Harvick said. "Overall, Bristol just fits my driving style."

In last year's spring race at Bristol, Harvick overcame alternator problems before grabbing the lead when Kyle Busch received a penalty for a tire violation. Harvick led the final 45 laps for his first Nationwide win in his own KHI car.

Scott Wimmer is scheduled to drive the No.7 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports at Bristol and then again April 3 at Nashville. JRM is hoping to find enough sponsorship to run its No.7 car full time in 2009. Right now, JRM's second entry with driver Danica Patrick is scheduled for 13 Nationwide races this season.

Kelly Bires is running a full schedule in JRM's No.88 car, even though the team continues to find more sponsorship for this season.

After Patrick drove the No.7 car to 31st, 35th and 36th-place finishes in the first three Nationwide races this year, the team sits 35th in owner points. JRM is trying to keep that car inside the top-30 in points to assure Patrick a guaranteed starting position.

Patrick finished 15th in the IZOD IndyCar Series season-opener last Sunday in Brazil. She is scheduled to compete in her next Nationwide race the last weekend in June at New Hampshire.

Wimmer is expected to make his 200th Nationwide start this weekend. He has recorded six wins and 71 top-10 finishes so far in the series.

"I raced with JR Motorsports in a select number of races last year, but this will be my first time working with [crew chief] Tony [Eury] Jr," Wimmer said. "I'm looking forward to the next two races with these guys."

JRM is co-owned by Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Rick Hendrick, as well as Earnhardt Jr.'s sister, Kelly, and cousin, Eury Jr.

Fifty teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Scotts Turf Builder 300.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.