Underdogs ruling at upset-filled ACC tournament

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 -

GREENSBORO, N.C. (AP) -The underdogs are trying to top each other at the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament - and they're succeeding.

``I've been seeing all the highlights of all the games, and what it seemed like is all the lower seeds were coming out on top,'' North Carolina State freshman Scott Wood said. ``I kind of didn't want to let them all down.''

Three upsets in the quarterfinal round set up a pair of unlikely semifinal matchups Saturday: Top-seeded Duke faces 12th-seeded Miami, and seventh-seeded Georgia Tech takes on 11th-seeded N.C. State.

The fourth-ranked Blue Devils - the only one of the top six seeds to make it to the semifinals - beat Virginia 57-46 before the Hurricanes started the binge of upsets by topping fourth-seeded Virginia Tech 70-65.

Then came the evening session, when the Yellow Jackets toppled No. 19 Maryland 69-64, and the Wolfpack beat third-seeded Florida State 58-52.

The ACC's two bottom seeds have made it to the semifinals, and five of the top six seeds are done - both firsts in the storied league tournament's history. In fact, never before had four of the top six been eliminated by this stage of the event.

``That's just one thing that I've noticed, and it just shows that the lower seeds have probably been wanting it a little bit more,'' Wood said. ``I think that's how it should be.''

At least one team - either N.C. State or Georgia Tech - is assured of becoming the latest ACC team to play four tournament games in four days. The Hurricanes, who sprung their second upset in a 24-hour period, hope to join them.

``In AAU, we played four games in one day. This is what I'm here for,'' said Miami's Durand Scott, who scored 11 of his 17 points in the final 6 minutes against the Hokies. ``This is what I like. I love to play basketball. I live for this. If I could play it nonstop without a break, I would do it.''

Three of the league's top players struggled just as mightily as its top teams.

ACC player of the year Greivis Vasquez of Maryland and fellow all-conference players Jon Scheyer of Duke and Malcolm Delaney of Virginia Tech combined to make 14 of 53 shots, including 3 of 25 from 3-point range.

The ACC's only favorite to win Friday used Scheyer's timely scoring surge. He scored seven of his 15 points during the decisive run against the Cavaliers.

Kyle Singler had 18 points and 11 rebounds, and Nolan Smith also had 15 points while Scheyer, the third member of Duke's ``Big Three,'' keyed the 11-0 run that saved the Blue Devils from joining the league's growing list of upset victims.

Instead, they'll face the Hurricanes, who had dropped 11 of 14 games before arriving here and joined the 2006 Wake Forest team as the only 12th-seed to reach the semifinals. DeQuan Jones added 14 points for the Hurricanes, who had never won two games in their previous five ACC tournaments.

In the other half of the bracket, Wood had his second hot shooting performance against the Seminoles, scoring 18 points on six 3-pointers to send the Wolfpack into the semifinals for the first time since coach Sidney Lowe reached the title game in his first season in 2007. They'll face a Georgia Tech team that blew most of a 19-point lead, overcame 25 turnovers and needed Iman Shumpert to strip the ball from Vasquez in the closing seconds.

That gave the Yellow Jackets' NCAA tournament resume a boost, with Selection Sunday drawing closer. Not that coach Paul Hewitt is looking that far ahead just yet.

``Right now, we're in this tournament. We can answer all the questions ourselves,'' Hewitt said. ``It's in our hands. We'll just see what happens tomorrow, and we'll take it from there.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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